Experts Predict When Artificial Intelligence Will Exceed Human Performance

“The experts predict that AI will outperform humans in the next 10 years in tasks such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high school essays (by 2026), and driving trucks (by 2027).

But many other tasks will take much longer for machines to master. AI won’t be better than humans at working in retail until 2031, able to write a bestselling book until 2049, or capable of working as a surgeon until 2053.

The experts are far from infallible. They predicted that AI would be better than humans at Go by about 2027. (This was in 2015, remember.) In fact, Google’s DeepMind subsidiary has already developed an artificial intelligence capable of beating the best humans. That took two years rather than 12. It’s easy to think that this gives the lie to these predictions.

The experts go on to predict a 50 percent chance that AI will be better than humans at more or less everything in about 45 years.”


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Facing exclusion with data

“What does Automattic – a technology company, MIT Center for Civic Media – a research powerhouse, and The Mash-Up Americans – my media firm, have in common? We’re all working together to have honest conversations, build empathy, and help make the world a more inclusive and compassionate place.”

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A Zen master explains why “positive thinking” is terrible advice.

“The philosophy of positive thinking means being untruthful; it means being dishonest. It means seeing a certain thing and yet denying what you have seen; it means deceiving yourself and others.”

“Positive thinking is the only bullshit philosophy that America has contributed to human thought – nothing else. Dale Carnegie, Napoleon Hill, and the Christian priest, Vincent Peale – all these people have filled the whole American mind with this absolutely absurd idea of a positive philosophy.”

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Can a neural network learn to recognize doodling?

“Over 15 million players have contributed millions of drawings playing Quick, Draw!These doodles are a unique data set that can help developers train new neural networks, help researchers see patterns in how people around the world draw, and help artists create things we haven’t begun to think of. That’s why we’re open-sourcing them, for anyone to play with.”

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The women missing from the silver screen and the technology used to find them

Get this…

“Women are seen on-screen more than men only in one film genre: horror.”

“Female-led films do better at the box office, earning 16% more than male-led films.”

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The Real Roots of Midlife Crisis

“Blanchflower and Oswald have found that, statistically speaking, going from age 20 to age 45 entails a loss of happiness equivalent to one-third the effect of involuntary unemployment.”

“‘Young people are miserable at regulating their emotions.’ Years ago, my father made much the same point when I asked him why in his 50s he stopped having rages, which had shadowed his younger years and disrupted our family: ‘I realized I didn’t need to have five-dollar reactions to nickel provocations.’”

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Google now knows when its users go to the store and buy stuff

“The new credit-card data enables the [Google] to connect these digital trails to real-world purchase records in a far more extensive way than was possible before…its undisclosed partner companies had access to 70 percent of transactions for credit and debit cards in the United States.”

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